Buffalo Bills 53-man roster projection: Why edge rusher is top position to watch

The Buffalo Bills are officially through the offseason program and now get a long break before training camp in late July. Organized team activities and mandatory minicamp were our first big look at the 2023 roster, and we learned several things along the way.

How does all the new information affect what the Bills could be looking at with their 53-man roster? Who could be on the bubble, and which player’s case could be stronger than initially thought?

Here is a brand new 53-man roster projection, including analysis of each position and a look at a potential Bills-only practice squad for 2023.

Quarterback (2)

Josh Allen, Kyle Allen

After the spring workouts, Kyle Allen looked like the better quarterback between the two backup options. The Bills also know they can get Matt Barkley to the practice squad because they’ve done it before. As of now, I’ll project the quarterbacks unit will be Allen².

Released: Matt Barkley

Running back (5)

James Cook, Nyheim Hines, Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, Reggie Gilliam (FB)

If the Bills are looking for a way to shave a player off their 53-man roster, running back could be the first go-to position. However, all four players serve a function for now. Cook is the top back, Harris and Murray are the short-yardage backs who can help take some rushing workload from Allen, and Hines is the return specialist who can excel in a pass-catching role.

Waived: Jordan Mims

Wide receiver (6)

Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty, Trent Sherfield, Justin Shorter

Half of the wide receivers unit features contributors the Bills believe in, and the other half has receivers they invested in this offseason. The Bills have some intriguing players after the top six who could make a case for a roster spot, such as KeeSean Johnson. But it’s going to be tough to find room for seven receivers this year if the seventh doesn’t have a special teams function. Johnson made some nice plays this spring, but he might not even be a practice squad lock because he’d take up one of the six veteran spots. I’d expect the Bills to look at Shorter as their developmental X-receiver while on the 53-man roster and backfill their practice squad with a developmental Z and slot receiver, too.

Waived: KeeSean Johnson, Dezmon Patmon, Isaiah Coulter, Jalen Wayne, Tyrell Shavers, Bryan Thompson, Marcell Ateman

Tight end (3)

Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, Quintin Morris

There isn’t any uncertainty with this group. There is a clear line of who is making the roster and who isn’t this year, with Knox and Kincaid at the head of the group. Morris also should be safe, considering all of the special teams units he plays on for the Bills.

Waived: Joel Wilson, Nick Guggemos

Offensive line (9)

Mitch Morse, Dion Dawkins, Spencer Brown, Connor McGovern, Ryan Bates, O’Cyrus Torrence, David Edwards, Ike Boettger, Tommy Doyle

The offensive line group comes down to which veteran players serve the Bills the most purpose as depth in 2023, and whom they might immediately be able to get back on the practice squad if they were to cut them. Edwards’ starting experience and knowledge of offensive line coach Aaron Kromer’s system are too good to pass on for now. As for Boettger, along with his abilities to fill in as a starter, he has long been considered one of the Bills’ glue guys in the locker room, which also carries value to them. Now that Doyle progressed to doing team drills at minicamp, it puts him right in the conversation for the 53-man roster rather than beginning the year on an injured list. For now, I’ve got Doyle making the team over David Quessenberry and Brandon Shell as a backup offensive tackle, with the idea of getting one of those two veterans back to the practice squad. Bates and Edwards could also likely fill in at tackle if need be.

Released: David Quessenberry, Brandon Shell, Greg Mancz
Waived: Nick Broeker, Alec Anderson, Ryan Van Demark, Richard Gouraige, Kevin Jarvis

Edge rusher (4)

Greg Rousseau, Leonard Floyd, A.J. Epenesa, Shaq Lawson

Of all the groups, edge rusher is the one everyone should be keeping an eye on. The addition of Floyd gives them roster flexibility and a starter opposite Rousseau until Von Miller is ready to play. It also gives the Bills the depth and flexibility to save Miller from himself a bit and allow for a successful, long-standing return from a severe injury. Until Miller takes legitimate strides near the end of his projected nine-month rehab, the reserve/physically unable to perform list should remain a consideration to begin the year. Doing so would give Miller, at minimum, a four-week ramp-up period within the regular season without being allowed to play in a game. The depth also allows the Bills to recoup a pick potentially on a draft investment who hasn’t panned out as they’d hoped. Boogie Basham still will carry some trade value with rebuilding teams around the league as a change-of-scenery high pick that can be had at a discounted price. With Basham traded in this projection, once Miller is ready to return, the Bills can do an easy one-for-one roster move with Lawson with the idea of bringing Lawson back to the practice squad.

Reserve/PUP: Von Miller

Traded before final cuts: Boogie Basham

Released: Shane Ray
Waived: Kingsley Jonathan, Kameron Cline

Defensive tackle (4)

Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Poona Ford, Tim Settle

Much like Miller, Jordan Phillips spent all of spring off to the side working with the strength and conditioning staff, and the Bills don’t know whether the defensive tackle will be ready for the start of training camp. It could be another opportunity to use good depth at a position, not forcing a veteran player to rush back by placing him on the reserve/PUP list to begin the regular season. Outside of that, Oliver, Jones and Ford are locked in, and Settle seems like a pretty good bet as well.

Reserve/PUP: Jordan Phillips

Released: Eli Ankou
Waived: Cortez Broughton, Kendal Vickers, D.J. Dale

Linebacker (6)

Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Tyrel Dodson, Dorian Williams, Baylon Spector, Tyler Matakevich

The linebackers group will be defined by the competition to become the team’s starting middle linebacker. Bernard, Dodson and Williams have the best odds of the group as it stands today, though things can change once full pads and full contact starts at training camp. In this projection, I have the Bills cutting A.J. Klein with the knowledge they’ll probably get him back to the practice squad. Teams did not show heavy interest in him over the last year and a half, and he likes playing for Sean McDermott, making it a pretty easy sell for both sides. There, Klein could serve as an insurance policy for the middle linebacker spot in case things go sideways with the younger options during the regular season.

Released: A.J. Klein, Travin Howard

Cornerback (6)

Tre’Davious White, Taron Johnson, Dane Jackson, Kaiir Elam, Christian Benford, Siran Neal

Two things we learned during the spring workouts are that the Bills are still committed to having Benford play cornerback and that the other boundary cornerback spot appears wide open among Benford, Jackson and the 2022 first-round pick Elam. Neal is a trusted special teams asset and likely the immediate backup nickel to Johnson, which makes him pretty safe for the 53-man roster. The two tough calls here are 2023 seventh-round pick Alex Austin and veteran cornerback Cameron Dantzler. However, it’s extremely difficult to find a roster function for either player over someone else unless they take camp and the preseason by storm. Although it will be tough to waive a draft pick, the Bills have done so before at the position, when they cut Dane Jackson as a rookie. It worked out for them getting him back to the practice squad. For now, I’d expect the Bills to try to get Austin and Dantzler back to the practice squad if it plays out this way.

Waived: Cameron Dantzler, Alex Austin, Ja’Marcus Ingram

Safety (5)

Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin, Cam Lewis

With Benford’s remaining at cornerback for now, I wouldn’t be surprised if they look at Cam Lewis as a safety in 2023. The case for Lewis to make the 53-man roster is pretty compelling. They trust him on special teams. He has experience as a safety and a nickel corner in their scheme. And, keeping another player who can play safety would be a good idea to take pressure off of the team and Hamlin to be an immediate depth and special teams contributor to begin the season.

Released: Dean Marlowe
Waived: Jared Mayden, Zayne Anderson

Specialists (3)

Tyler Bass (K), Sam Martin (P), Reid Ferguson (LS)

Without competition for any of the specialists, this is an open-and-shut case unless someone gets injured or has an unforeseen downturn in performance.

Waived: None

Practice squad (16)

QB Matt Barkley*, RB Jordan Mims, WR Jalen Wayne, WR Bryan Thompson, TE Joel Wilson, OT David Quessenberry*, G Nick Broeker, IOL Alec Anderson, OT Ryan Van Demark, DE Kingsley Jonathan, DT Eli Ankou*, DT D.J. Dale, LB A.J. Klein*, CB Cameron Dantzler*, CB Alex Austin, S Dean Marlowe*

*Denotes a qualifying veteran by practice squad standards. Teams are only allowed six veterans on their practice squad.

Roster moves key:

Reserve/PUP: A player who begins training camp on the physically unable to perform list can go to the reserve list at final cuts if they are not activated to the roster throughout the summer. They must stay on reserve/PUP for at least four regular-season weeks to start the year.

Waived: A player with three or fewer vested years of experience will be subject to waivers if let go by the team.

Released: A player with four or more vested years of experience is not subject to waivers if let go by the team and will be free to sign anywhere immediately.

(Top photo of Boogie Basham: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)