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A flurry of late moves in free agency has complicated matters when it comes to projecting who will make the Buffalo Bills’ initial, 53-man roster at the end of the summer.
General Manager Brandon Beane has been busy since the NFL draft concluded in April, making a series of transactions involving veteran players who have a good chance at being regular contributors in 2023. Running back Latavius Murray, defensive tackle Poona Ford, defensive end Leonard Floyd and offensive tackle Brandon Shell have signed in the past six weeks – and all make the team in The Buffalo News’ latest 53-man projection following the conclusion of mandatory minicamp.
“It’s going to drive me to do better and be the best I can,” Poona Ford said. “It’s a lot of guys in the room, but I ain’t backing down from competition. I’m all for it.”
Not many changes are expected to the 90-man roster between now and the start of training camp at St. John Fisher University in Pittsford on July 26 – although Beane has shown us all to stay on our toes. With summer vacation started for the team, here is a look at how the roster shapes up heading to camp:
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Quarterbacks (2): Josh Allen, Kyle Allen.
Analysis: A rule change this year allows teams to designate an emergency quarterback who could come into the game if the team’s top two quarterbacks get hurt. However, a team would have to carry three quarterbacks on its 53-man roster to take advantage of that rule, and it remains unlikely the Bills will do that. In non-Covid years, the team has never carried more than two quarterbacks on the active roster. Given the depth that has been accumulated at other positions, the Bills are far more likely to want to keep a player elsewhere as opposed to keeping Barkley on the active roster just to be the emergency quarterback.
Running backs/fullback (5): James Cook, Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, Nyheim Hines, Reggie Gilliam.
Analysis: The new kickoff rule that allows teams to call for a fair catch and start an offensive drive at their own 25-yard line makes it worth questioning whether Hines’ value, which is tied in part to his ability on special teams as a returner, is still worth a spot on the 53-man roster. The thinking here is that the Bills will give him every opportunity to prove that is still the case after trading for him last season. Perhaps a full offseason to digest the Bills’ offense will give Hines a better chance at making more of an impact on offense. Murray gives the Bills veteran leadership and a good insurance policy in case something were to happen to Harris, who has fought injuries in recent years and was limited to 11 games last season.
The Bills could find nontraditional ways to get free agent signee Deonte Harty on the field.
Wide receivers (6): Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty, Justin Shorter.
Cuts (7): Marcell Ateman, Isaiah Coulter, KeeSean Johnson, Dezmon Patmon, Tyrell Shavers, Bryan Thompson, Jalen Wayne.
Analysis: Using a draft pick on Shorter gives him the inside track on the sixth and final spot on the active roster, but he’ll be pushed by those behind him. The Bills were largely an “11” personnel team last season, meaning one running back and one tight end were joined on the field by three wide receivers. It’s expected that formation will be utilized less this year, with rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid pushing the team toward more “12” personnel – one running back joined by two tight ends and two wide receivers. Still, there is an open question as to who the third receiver will be with Diggs and Davis in “11” personnel. Shakir is the bet here in a traditional slot role, but don’t rule out the team trying to find creative ways to get the ultra-explosive Harty on the field, perhaps in nontraditional ways. Sherfield and Shorter bring value on special teams, and Sherfield impressed Allen with the extra reps he got during the spring because of Diggs’ absence from practice.
Tight ends (3): Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, Quintin Morris.
Analysis: The only question here is whether the Bills go with two or three players at the position. We know Knox and Kincaid are making the team. The thinking here is they’ll keep three tight ends, especially if “12” personnel is going to be a bigger part of the game plan.
Offensive line (9): Dion Dawkins, Connor McGovern, Mitch Morse, Ryan Bates, Spencer Brown, O’Cyrus Torrence, David Edwards, Brandon Shell, Nick Broeker.
Cuts (7): David Quessenberry, Alec Anderson, Ryan Van Demark, Richard Gouraige, Greg Mancz, Kevin Jarvis, Ike Boettger.
PUP list (1): Tommy Doyle.
Analysis: Projecting the starters is easy. So, too, is O’Cyrus Torrence making the team as a second-round draft pick. It gets challenging after that. Shell, who didn’t join the team until the beginning of this month, has 72 career starts. He should be considered the favorite to win the swing tackle job as the top backup to Dawkins and Brown, which makes Quessenberry expendable. Boettger is one of the toughest cuts to make. He missed nearly all of last season because of a torn Achilles suffered late in 2021. His dedication to get back on the field has earned him the respect of coaches and teammates, but the Bills addressed the interior of the line with three meaningful additions this offseason – McGovern, Torrence and Edwards. That means it might come down to Boettger or Broeker – a seventh-round draft pick from Ole Miss – for the final spot. Broeker has the versatility – along with a cost-controlled rookie contract – that gives him a slight advantage right now. Keep in mind, too, Beane has swung trades along the offensive line at the end of the summer before. If he can get an asset for a player he might otherwise have to cut, it would be wise to do so again.
Edge rushers (5): Greg Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa, Leonard Floyd, Shaq Lawson, Boogie Basham.
Cuts (3): Kingsley Jonathan, Shane Ray, Kameron Cline.
Injured reserve (1): Von Miller.
Analysis: Miller continues to be optimistic that he can be back in time for Week 1, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Bills have him make the 53-man roster, then place him on injured reserve, which would keep him out for at least the first four games. It’s much more important for the Bills for Miller to be available in December and January than it is in September and October. Another late addition in free agency, Floyd is pretty close to a roster lock given his track record, which does create some additional roster drama. Would the Bills consider trading Boogie Basham? Is Shaq Lawson completely safe? Those questions get even harder to answer if Miller is ready to go in Week 1. If that’s the case, either a surprise cut or a trade seems necessary.
Defensive tackles (4): Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Tim Settle, Poona Ford.
Cuts (4): Eli Ankou, Cortez Broughton, D.J. Dale, Kendal Vickers.
PUP list (1): Jordan Phillips.
The team will open training camp on July 26 at St. John Fisher University in Pittsford.
Analysis: Phillips is coming off shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and did not participate in spring practices. It remains to be seen if he’ll be ready at the start of training camp. If not, the physically unable to perform list could be a way to temporarily ease the logjam at the position. Ford, who signed in May, figures to be a key part of the rotation. If Phillips is healthy, it could spell trouble for Settle, who is in the final year of his contract. The depth across the defensive line is the best it’s been since Beane arrived.
Linebackers (6): Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Tyrel Dodson, Tyler Matakevich, Dorian Williams, A.J. Klein.
Cuts (2): Baylon Spector, Travin Howard.
Analysis: This is, by far, the biggest competition entering training camp – and the most wide open. Spector is the odd man out in this projection, but that could easily change with a good performance this summer. We know Milano is safe. It seems highly unlikely the Bills would move on from either Bernard or Williams – both third-round picks in the past two drafts. That leaves five players competing for three spots. Klein has the most experience, and would be a veteran option if kept over Spector, who is going into his second season. Special teams will be a factor in the decision. Klein has played a role there in recent years, which is another reason he’s slightly ahead of Spector at the moment (at least in this projection).
Safeties (4): Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin.
Cuts (3): Zayne Anderson, Jared Mayden, Dean Marlowe.
Analysis: Seeing Hamlin back on the field has undoubtedly been one of the highlights of the spring. He seems to be making great progress in his recovery, and there is no reason to think that he won’t be fully ready to compete for a job at training camp. The top three spots belonging to Hyde, Poyer and Rapp are all but solidified.
Cornerbacks (6): Tre’Davious White, Dane Jackson, Christian Benford, Kaiir Elam, Taron Johnson, Siran Neal.
Cuts (4): Alex Austin, Cameron Dantzler, Ja’Marcus Ingram, Cam Lewis.
Analysis: Yet another position where the Bills have enviable depth. In this projection, the team is cutting a draft pick (Austin), a former third-round draft pick who has made 26 career starts and is just 24 years old (Dantzler) and two players the organization has spent significant time developing (Ingram and Lewis). None of those cuts will be easy to make, but the projected top six all have defined roles. There should be a spirited competition to start at No. 2 cornerback opposite White. Let’s be real: Elam needs to win that job. If he doesn’t, spending a first-round draft pick on him last year will start to look sketchy.
Special teams (3): Reid Ferguson, Sam Martin, Tyler Bass.
Analysis: You know you’re good at your job when a team doesn’t even bother bringing in camp competition. That’s true for each one of the Bills’ specialists.
