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How many points do you need to avoid Premier League relegation? The minimum tally for survival, explained
Calculators out, it’s time to work out the points tally that will guarantee Premier League survival – and at first glance, 40 points will certainly not be necessary.
That is the “magic” marker countless managers have mentioned in seasons gone by, and has in fact been a relatively safe total in the league’s 38-game era.
Only on three occasions have clubs been relegated with 40 or more points: Sunderland (40) in 1996-97, Bolton (40) the following season, and West Ham (42) in 2002-03.
That means two decades have passed since 40 points was not enough, with even 29 sufficient in 2020-21 when Fulham finished 18th on 28 points.
Last season, Burnley were relegated on 35 points, but that total could yet be enough for those vying to stay in the top tier this time around.
Mathematically, the magic number with two games remaining is 38. That is because Leeds are currently 18th on 31 points, meaning they can only achieve a maximum of 37.
Above Leeds are West Ham (37 points), Nottingham Forest (34) and Everton (32), all of whom have their fate in their own hands.
West Ham are a point from guaranteed safety, although in truth they are already clear of the scrap, while Nottingham Forest could take a huge leap towards preserving their Premier League status if they beat Arsenal on Saturday.
Premier League remaining fixtures
Nottingham Forest
- 20 May: Arsenal (h)
- 28 May: Crystal Palace (a)
Everton
- 20 May: Wolves (a)
- 28 May: Bournemouth (h)
Leeds
- 21 May: West Ham (a)
- 28 May: Tottenham (h)
Leicester
- 22 May: Newcastle (a)
- 28 May: West Ham (h)
Premier League table
Everton, meanwhile, travel to Wolves in their penultimate fixture on Saturday, knowing three points would pile the pressure on Leeds and Leicester (30 points) below them.
The writing would appear to be on the wall for Leicester, who sit two points adrift of safety after their defeat to Liverpool on Monday night. The Foxes will likely need beat either Newcastle away or West Ham at home to have any chance of staying up – two draws would only be enough if Everton lose their remaining two fixtures.
Likewise, Leeds currently have an inferior goal difference to Everton – by just the one goal – and they will need to outperform the Toffees in the final run-in.
The bookmakers have Leicester at 1-7 to go down, and given they face Newcastle on Monday, they could be relegated if they lose to the Toon and Everton beat Wolves on Saturday.
The same would apply for Leeds, currently 2-5 to go down, if they lose or draw at West Ham on Sunday and both Everton and Forest win their games the day prior.
