Manchester United warning for Newcastle United – The numbers simply don’t add up

I am getting a Manchester United warning for Newcastle United.

Delving into last season and what went on with both clubs.

The numbers simply don’t add up now for Newcastle United.

I have analysed the use of players at both clubs last season, Newcastle United and Manchester United.

Newcastle United players – All the ones who started double figures (all competitions) of games in 2022/23 season:

43, 42, 41, 41, 41

37, 37, 36, 36, 34

18, 16, 14

Newcastle United played 46 matches last season (38 Premier League, 1 FA Cup, 7 League Cup).

So there were 506 (11 x 46) starting eleven positions to fill.

The 14 players above who started 10 or more NUFC matches last season, filled 436 of those 506 starting eleven places

Manchester United players – All the ones who started double figures (all competitions) of games in 2022/23 season:

58, 58

46, 43, 40

39, 38, 38, 37, 31

29, 29, 28, 27, 23, 20

17, 16, 16, 11, 11, 10

Manchester United played 62 matches last season (38 Premier League, 6 FA Cup, 6, League Cup, 12 Europa League).

So there were 682 (11 x 62) starting eleven positions to fill.

The 15 Manchester United players above who started the most games, filled 570 of those 682 starting eleven places.

Then the next 7 highest appearance makers (the others to start double figures of games) filled another 101 of those 682 starting eleven places.

Conclusions

Well, even if Newcastle United lose every single one of their cup matches in all three competitions, they would still play a minimum of 46 matches in the 2023/24 season.

Under Eddie Howe, I think fair to expect next season maybe at least eight cup games on top of the basic six Champions League group games and two domestic cup matches. That already takes Newcastle up to 54 matches to play next season.

Looking at it fairly optimistically, I don’t think it is too much to think that this Newcastle United team for example, could be well capable of getting to the semis of both domestic cup competitions, plus if finishing third in their Champions League group, going a long way in the Europa League.

Already we would be then getting into 60+ territory in terms of numbers of matches.

I think it is becoming very clear that Newcastle United need a lot more players playing a lot more games.

Putting some names to the Newcastle United players last season – All who started double figures (all competitions) of games in 2022/23 season:

Trippier 43, Pope 42, Botman 41, Schar 41, Burn 41

Joelinton 37, Bruno 37, Willock 36, Longstaff 36, Almiron 34

Wilson 26

Isak 18, Murphy 16, ASM 14

There were actually only three Newcastle United players who started more than five of the 46 matches. These were Matt Targett 8, Elliot Anderson 6, Chris Wood 6.

These are all crazy stats really.

Basically, we had the entire first choice defence (Trippier 43, Pope 42, Botman 41, Schar 41, Burn 41) starting pretty much every game all season.

Then the other five players in midfield and/or playing wide (Joelinton 37, Bruno 37, Willock 36, Longstaff 36, Almiron 34) all starting 80% or more of the matches (all competitions).

To repeat those percentages in a 60+ match season, you would be having all the defence starting close to 60 matches each and then the next five starting around 50 each, or at least high 40s.

I can’t say I like him but fair play to Bruno Fernandes (as well as keeper David de Gea) for starting 58 of Man U’s 62 matches last season, you then drop to Rashford starting 43 of 62 as next highest.

Manchester United had 22 players starting 10 or more matches last season, Newcastle United had 14 players who did so.

Where is Eddie Howe getting the other 8 or more from?

When he talks about probably only two or three players arriving this summer, I think we need to take it with a healthy dose of scepticsm.

I can see Matt Targett and Elliot Anderson very likely joining the other 14 who registered double figures last season, in terms of starting matches, but who else…?

The likes of Lascelles, Manquillo, Dummett, Ritchie, Lewis and so on were available a lot of the time but Eddie Howe not selecting them.

Hopefully once settled in, Anthony Gordon (started 4 NUFC games last season) definitely needs to join these who are starting 10+ matches this coming season BUT for me, that still leaves us five or six short.

I think we are going to see a significant number of fringe players moved out this summer and Eddie Howe bringing in an essential five or six new first team squad players (who are good enough to play), or more….