Miami hot weather plan faces first test. How scorching will it be? What forecast says

Miami-Dade’s declaration of “heat season” and a new National Weather Service pilot program that lowers the bar for extreme heat warnings could get its first workout in the coming week.

The National Weather Service in Miami said on Friday that the combination of increasing heat and humidity after a week of stormy afternoons will push the afternoon “feels like” temperatures to around 100 degrees Sunday and Monday.

And then it will feel hotter. Just in time for out-of-school kids to begin summer camp or trips to Disney World in Central Florida, that heat index that could near 110 degrees.

In South Florida, look for a heat index — what you really feel on your skin on hot days from high temperatures and dew points — to rise to between 100 and 106 degrees from Tuesday into late week.

New Miami heat advisory threshold

In May, Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava and weather service officials announced plans for raising awareness of environmental extreme heat hazards and presented changes in county and weather service protocols.

Among the initiatives: the declaration of a Miami heat season that runs from May 1 to Oct. 31 — and, no, it has nothing to do with our favorite basketball team. Miami-Dade will serve as a test case for new warning levels that trigger a heat advisory.

Previously, the weather service issued a heat advisory when the heat index hit 108 degrees. Now, the weather service will issue a heat advisory if the index is 105 degrees for at least a couple of hours. Miami weather service meteorologist Chris Fisher told the Miami Herald on Friday.

The goal is to spread awareness so that people protect themselves from extreme heat that leads to about 34 deaths and hundreds of hospitalizations every year, according to county estimates.

Fisher said that those advisories could arrive after the weekend in the Miami area.

How hot will it get in Miami area?

The upper level system that has given South Florida and the Keys stormy afternoons for most of the past week will be moving through this weekend, Fisher said.

Though a typical summer pattern of afternoon storms remains in the forecast — with chances between 30% and 40% from Sunday through Thursday in the Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas — an upper-level, high-pressure system starts to dominate next week, according to Fisher.

That means bad weather will be driven more by typical sea breeze type showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening, he said.

“But with less coverage overall compared to what we’ve seen, we are expecting our temperatures to kick up a little bit so it’s a pretty good bet the Miami area will see highs in the lower-90s most of next week,” Fisher said. “When you combine that with dew points in the low- to middle-70s we will see heat index values right around 100 each day, and it may it may approach 105, but 100 for sure.”

The main idea for the pilot program, which could extend to other counties, came about, Fisher said, because “some studies have shown that heat-related issues start cropping up around 105,” he said.

WFTV-Channel 9 meteorologist Brian Shields in Central Florida posted a meme Friday that suggested the Orlando area could see the heat index bake residents and tourists at 110 degrees.

That extreme heat “wouldn’t surprise” Fisher, he said on Friday.

“We get saved a little bit by the fact that the sea breezes usually kick in at some point in the afternoon. Up in Orlando, in the center of the state, they don’t get that luxury a lot of the time so it wouldn’t surprise me if they end up a little bit warmer up there.”

Tips to prevent heat exhaustion and heat stroke

Miami-Dade County issued several hot weather survival tips, based on U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advice, and noted who is most at risk in recent postings.

Who is most at risk of heat-related illnesses: Older adults 65 and older, young children, people with chronic health conditions or mental illness, athletes who exercise outdoors, outdoor workers, people living unsheltered or with limited access to air conditioning, pregnant people, and pets.

What you should do:

▪ Stay cool by spending time in air-conditioned buildings.

▪ Avoid direct contact with the sun.

▪ Reduce physical activity and move to shaded areas.

▪ Do outdoor activities in the cooler morning or evening hours, and dampening your shirt or wrapping a wet scarf or bandana around your neck or forehead could also help.

▪ Stay hydrated and drink plenty of water or drinks with electrolytes if you’re sweating. Don’t wait until you’re thirsty to drink more.

▪ Limit or avoid dehydrating caffeine and alcohol.

▪ Never leave infants, children or pets in a parked car, even if the windows are cracked open.

▪ Watch for signs of heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Seek medical care immediately if you know someone who experiences symptoms that could include high body temperature, headache, dizziness or nausea and confusion.