MLB Wednesday best bets: Yankees to stay hot vs. Orioles

Despite a handful of afternoon games on the docket, we still have a packed 10-game slate to look forward to this evening.

Let’s take a look at a couple of my favorite plays on the board.

Orioles (+120) @ Yankees (-140)

The Yankees are one of the hottest teams in baseball. They’ve won five consecutive games and eight of 10, which is no small feat considering they had series against the Blue Jays, Rays, and now Orioles mixed in throughout.

I think they have a strong chance of claiming yet another victory Wednesday night versus the Orioles

Tyler Wells will be tasked with slowing the Yankees down. While he has enjoyed success to date, he’s much more hittable than his counting numbers suggest.

Over the past month, he owns a FIP of 5.32, which is quite bad. The reason it hasn’t shown up on the scoreboard, by and large, is luck when the ball is put in play. He owns a BABIP of .152 over the past 30 days. Moving forward, that number should be close to .300.

This red-hot Yankees offense should be chomping at the bit to bring on that regression. They slot fifth in wOBA and second in ISO – behind only the Twins – against righties the past couple of weeks. They’re going to be tough for Wells to deal with.

On the flip side of things, Nestor Cortes’ struggles can be traced back to facing arguably the league’s two best sides against left-handed pitchers. The Rays and Rangers – the only teams Cortes has allowed more than three runs against all season – rank No. 1 and No. 3, respectively, in wOBA versus lefties over the past month.

While the Orioles are competent as well, they slot outside the top 10 and are a much more manageable opponent for Cortes.

Look for the Yankees to get to Wells early and for a quality start from Cortes – who pitched 5.1 innings of two-run ball last time he faced Baltimore – to guide a New York victory.

Bet: Yankees (-140)

Tyler Wells under 17.5 pitching outs (-130)

We’re going to double dip in our Orioles fade by targeting Wells. A big reason I see an edge on the Yankees is because of Wells’ unsustainable success to date. He really hasn’t pitched as well as his ERA indicates, and that’s going to catch up to him sooner than later.

As mentioned, the Yankees are teeing off against right-handed arms right now. It’ll be tough for Wells to mask his issues versus such an in-form offense.

Wells has a poor history against the Yankees as well. Dating back to last season, he’s recorded 15 outs or fewer in four of his last five starts against New York.

If the Yankees are to win this game, they’re likely to chase Wells before he can complete six innings.

Wander Franco over 1.5 total bases (+115)

Franco is a machine against left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .333 on the year with a .429 wOBA versus lefties. Astronomically good numbers.

Opposing lefties are only generating soft contact 3.7% of the time when pitching to Franco. He’s not just making contact; he’s making hard contact.

There’s no reason to expect any different against Yusei Kikuchi. He’s posted a 5.52 FIP over the past 30 days and allowed well over two homers per nine innings. He’s giving up a lot of power.

What I love about Franco – beyond the extremely favorable splits – is that he profiles extremely well against what Kikuchi throws.

The latter uses a four-seam fastball nearly 50% of the time. It just so happens Franco destroys that pitch.

Franco owns a ridiculous .534 wOBA and 68.4% hard-hit rate versus four-seamers this season. Those metrics are even better than last year’s, where Franco still ranked second on the Rays in run value produced versus the fastball.

Considering Franco checks every box imaginable in this matchup – and is plus money – now seems like as good a time as any to back him.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.