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North-West Europe’s scorching days heat up 2x faster
Newswise — A recent study from the University of Oxford discovered that climate change is making the hottest days in North-West Europe heat up twice as fast as regular summer days. This effect is especially noticeable in England, Wales, and Northern France. What’s concerning is that although climate models can accurately predict the warming rate for normal days, they don’t accurately predict how much the hottest days are warming based on real-life observations.
Dr. Matthew Patterson, the lead researcher from the University of Oxford, explains that the study’s findings suggest that extreme heat events, like the UK’s record-breaking heatwave last summer, will likely occur more frequently in the future. This emphasizes that the UK and neighboring countries are already being affected by climate change, and the heatwave was not just a random occurrence. Dr. Patterson urges policymakers to take immediate action and adjust infrastructure and healthcare systems to handle the consequences of higher temperatures.
In the study, which was published today in Geographical Research Letters, Dr. Patterson examined data spanning the last 60 years (1960-2021). The data used was collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and focused on recording the highest temperature reached each day during that period.
Throughout the years, the maximum temperatures recorded showed some variation, but the overall pattern was evident: the hottest days in North-West Europe warmed at a rate twice as fast as the average summer days. In particular, for England and Wales, the average temperature on a summer day increased by about 0.26°C every decade, while the temperature on the hottest day increased by approximately 0.58°C per decade. Interestingly, this faster warming of the hottest days was not observed to the same extent in other regions of the Northern Hemisphere.
The exact cause behind the faster warming of the hottest days compared to average summer days is not fully known at this time. Dr. Patterson suggests that one possible explanation is that the hottest summer days in North-West Europe are often associated with the transportation of hot air from Spain. Since Spain is experiencing a faster rate of warming than North-West Europe, the air brought in from this region becomes increasingly extreme when compared to the surrounding air in North-West Europe. For example, the hottest days in 2022 were influenced by a surge of hot air originating from Spain and the Sahara. However, further research is necessary to confirm this hypothesis and gain a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms.
Dr. Patterson emphasized the significance of comprehending the rate at which the hottest days are warming. This understanding is crucial for enhancing climate models’ ability to simulate extreme events accurately and make reliable predictions regarding the future intensity of such events. If climate models underestimate the increase in extreme temperatures in the coming decades, it will lead to an underestimation of the resulting impacts. Therefore, it is essential to improve our knowledge of this aspect to effectively prepare for the consequences of climate change.
Extreme heat has far-reaching negative effects on various aspects of society. It poses significant challenges to energy and transportation infrastructure, as well as agriculture. Additionally, it exacerbates health conditions, such as respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, which places additional strain on healthcare services. The impacts of extreme heat are multifaceted and can have wide-ranging consequences on multiple sectors and the well-being of individuals.
The current UK Government has been criticised by the Climate Change Committee (CCC) for failing to act quickly enough to adapt for the impacts of global heating. These new findings add even more urgency for policy makers to adapt infrastructure and systems vulnerable to extreme heat.
Notes to editors:
For media requests and interviews, contact Dr Matthew Patterson, Department of Physics, University of Oxford: [email protected]
The study ‘North-West Europe hottest days are warming twice as fast as mean summer days’ will be published in Geographical Research Letters, DOI 10.1029/2023GL102757. This link will go live when the embargo lifts. To view a pre-embargo copy of the study, contact Dr Matthew Patterson, Department of Physics, University of Oxford: [email protected]
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