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Virginia legislative candidates are seeking nominations on landscapes not of their own making, often facing voters who do not know them from Adam — or Eve — and sustaining their campaigns with cash from lobbyists likely to wield greater influence because they know more about the old-time ways of the General Assembly than the newcomers who will soon flood the House of Delegates and Virginia Senate.
Some 40 primaries across the state Tuesday will not just settle nominations, Democratic and Republican; they could be tantamount to election. That is because some of the 100 House and 40 Senate districts drawn by the Virginia Supreme Court — it did the job because a voter-approved bipartisan commission flopped — strongly favor one party over the other, reducing November balloting to a formality.
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Most of the action is for the Senate and is Democratic, often pitting older center-left establishment candidates against younger left-left progressives, though several Republican contests are emerging as measures of former President Donald Trump’s standing in a state party led by a governor, Glenn Youngkin, who pretties up his MAGA-esque politics and policies with a polyester vest.
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Herewith — and continuing Saturday — a region-by-region assessment of nominations fights, often among strangers in strange lands:
Center-left tensions and racial and ethnic diversity are driving several Democratic Senate primaries, threatening long-serving incumbents Jeremy McPike of Prince William and Dave Marsden and George Barker of Fairfax. A Barker defeat could cost the D.C. suburb what little remains of the outsized influence it already is losing because of retirements. Barker is co-chair of the Senate budget committee and could lead it outright if he is returned to Richmond and Democrats still rule the Senate.
But Barker is facing two obstacles in the primary with Stella Pekarsky: Just 6% of his old district is in the new one, meaning he has spent most of the campaign introducing himself to an audience that may be more familiar with Pekarsky. She is on the Fairfax County School Board. It is a perch that means visibility in a locality where nearly everyone has a stake in its highly ranked public schools, more so because Youngkin — who lost Fairfax in 2021 — belittles them as hotbeds of supposed woke-ism.
Also closely watched: the Democratic Senate primary between prosecutor and ex-CIA agent Russert Perry and Zachary Cummings, a Leesburg councilor, in a swingy, Loudoun-anchored district where Republicans are coalescing behind a Latino info-tech multimillionaire. In Prince William, two former Democratic delegates, Hala Ayala and Jennifer Carroll Foy — both unsuccessful statewide candidates two years ago — are facing off for a Senate nomination.
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Eight Republicans are running for the Senate nomination in a district rooted in deep-red Frederick County. Del. Dave LaRock, a Jan. 6 protester who moved to the district from Loudoun, where he was the last Republican in Northern Virginia’s House delegation, may stand furthest to the right in a field of right-wingers that includes a Shenandoah County supervisor who favors repealing the constitutional guarantee of free public schools.
In the Fredericksburg area, a Senate Republican primary will test Youngkin’s pulling power. He endorsed Del. Tara Durant over Matt Strickland, a restaurateur who has sharply criticized the governor for not moving faster in easing coronavirus protections that both said smothered business. The district leans Republican, but Democrats think they may have a shot if Strickland, viewed as a gadfly, is the GOP pick.
Virginia senators kick off the 2023 General Assembly session on Jan. 11 at the State Capitol.
In a suburban Richmond district that embraces some of the region’s most conservative turf — eastern Chesterfield County and Colonial Heights — Republican Sen. Amanda Chase, a Trump channeler and one of Youngkin’s top surrogates among MAGA voters, faces two opponents: Tina Ramirez, a Trump ally keen on religion and gun rights, and Glen Sturtevant, a former state senator who was defeated in the 2019 blue wave and once had a comparatively moderate profile.
Two signs Chase is the candidate to beat: Her abundant yard signs, and a TV commercial by Ramirez that seems to depict Sturtevant as a spoiler. Without mentioning Chase, Ramirez attacks Sturtevant as a faux conservative, attempting to draw votes from him that may be the key to overtaking the incumbent.
Youngkin is silent on this race. That might be confounding, given Chase’s enthusiastic loyalty to Youngkin after losing the gubernatorial nomination to him. Youngkin’s neutrality likely has to do with uncertainty about the outcome; perhaps he did not want to raise more doubts about his pulling power by possibly picking a loser.
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To some Democrats, uncertainty defines the Senate nomination battle between incumbent Joe Morrissey and Lashrecse Aird. Morrissey’s tabloid private life — he is divorcing a young wife with whom he had an underage sexual relationship — and his support of a ban on most abortions after 20 weeks are fodder for opponents. Morrissey’s granular attention to constituent services ensures steadfast voter loyalty that could be decisive in a thinly attended primary for this Petersburg-oriented seat.
But Petersburg has an on-again, off-again relationship with both candidates. Aird, a former delegate and leader in fundraising in this cycle, is looking to Henrico County for the win. It is the largest jurisdiction in the district and its political leadership is solidly behind her, even though Morrissey represented part of the county as a member of the House.
Among those backing Aird is Lamont Bagby, an ex-Henrico delegate installed in the Senate in a snap election in March and chairman of the Legislative Black Caucus. He was widely viewed as shoo-in for a full term in a new district, but supporters are nervous over the traction of his opponent, Katie Gooch, a Methodist minister. She, too, is highly visible and defeated Bagby — an incumbent — in a city Democratic committee straw poll that drew fewer than 100 votes.
Richmond City Council’s decision this week to hold in November a do-over referendum on a proposed casino — it was rejected in 2021 — could scramble the Bagby-Gooch contest. He is for it; she is against it. And some of the areas where Gooch appears strongest are areas where resistance to a casino is greatest.
05-31-1971 (cutline): Voting Machines destined for Henrico Polling booths are unloaded.
Contact Jeff E. Schapiro at (804) 649-6814 or [email protected]. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter, @RTDSchapiro. Listen to his analysis at 7:45 a.m. and 5:45 p.m. Friday on Radio IQ, 89.7 FM in Richmond; 89.1 FM in Roanoke; and WHRV, 89.5 FM in Norfolk.
