Why McCarthy’s gavel is safe — for now

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

BIG DAYS AHEAD — House members return today from their Memorial Day recess to begin work on the Fiscal Responsibility Act, the 99-page bill that would curb federal spending and raise the debt ceiling until 2025. Expect the unexpected, but here’s what the next two days are scheduled to look like:

Today: At noon, the conservative hard-liners in the House Freedom Caucus will hold a news conference outside the Capitol to rally opposition to the deal. At 3 p.m., the House Rules Committee will meet to prepare the bill for floor action. At 6:30 p.m., the House will hold votes on unrelated bills, giving whips in both parties their first chance to count votes in person. At 7:30 p.m., House Republican leaders will host a closed-door conference meeting.

Tomorrow: At 9 a.m., House Democrats will meet in a closed-door caucus meeting where they will hear from White House officials SHALANDA YOUNG, STEVE RICCHETTI, JOHN PODESTA and AVIVA ARON-DINE on the merits of the deal. At 7:13 p.m., a 72-hour review period will end, allowing House leaders to bring the bill to the floor and setting up a final vote well after markets close.

ALL ABOUT THAT BASE — By the time Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY unveiled the details of the debt ceiling deal with President JOE BIDEN this weekend, the conservative backlash was already brewing.

If you’re at all familiar with recent GOP speakers, you might think you know the rest of the script. The right’s dismay over the bipartisan fiscal agreements Speaker JOHN BOEHNER landed with President BARACK OBAMA marked the beginning of the end of his career, and hard-liners learned a valuable lesson from the experience: Threats to oust a speaker, using the once-obscure “motion to vacate the chair,” are a useful tool for exerting political power.

And yet, while many conservatives are hopping mad about the deal, they have not yet publicly threatened McCarthy — even as they rail against what they’re calling a “surrender” of the GOP majority.

Case in point: In an interview with Playbook yesterday, conservative Rep. BOB GOOD (R-Va.) blasted the agreement as being not “much different than what we could have gotten with a Democrat majority in the House.” Yet when asked about booting McCarthy, he held his fire: “I don’t know of anyone that’s talking about that. Honestly, I only hear about it when reporters ask me about it,” he said.

We heard something similar a few days ago, before the deal was unveiled, from Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.), a former Freedom Caucus chair: “Nobody is going to bring a motion to vacate the chair. I just can’t see that happening.”

Of course, the agreement struck over the weekend could change this dynamic. It might have already: Just after midnight last night, NBC’s Katherine Doyle tweeted that Rep. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.) brought up the motion to vacate during a Freedom Caucus call last night. When caucus chairman Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.) suggested the move may be premature, she reports, Rep. PAUL GOSAR (R-Ariz.) proposed using the threat of McCarthy’s ouster to force him to allow floor amendments to the deal — a move that would unravel the agreement and once again threaten a national default. Per Doyle, Perry agreed to discuss it further once the group returned to town.

Playbook has not independently verified this reporting and the tweet has since been deleted.

WHY McCARTHY MAY BE SAFE (FOR NOW) — Not even six months ago, conservative hard-liners fought tooth and nail to prevent just this scenario, forcing McCarthy to go 15 ballots and make deep governing concessions to win the speaker’s gavel.

But two dynamics help explain why McCarthy has been resilient — at least so far: (1) The backroom horse-trading, it turns out, helped McCarthy forge relationships with the right in a way his predecessors never did. And (2) the GOP base simply isn’t up in arms opposing him.

Boehner and his successor, PAUL RYAN, saw GOP voters turn against them, which in turn put pressure on rank-and-file GOP members. That, however, isn’t happening right now.

In fact, McCarthy’s approval rating has jumped by 10 points among Republicans since he took the gavel, hovering at 66%, according to a recent YouGov/Economist poll. Anecdotally speaking, even Biggs — who hails from a district DONALD TRUMP carried by 15 points in 2020 — told Playbook that his constituents think McCarthy’s doing “fairly well” and are “not really focusing on McCarthy’s speakership.”

BRENDAN BUCK, who worked for both Boehner and Ryan, said McCarthy appears to have learned from both — that “the worst thing a speaker can do is become a problem back home for their members,” he said. “He has gone out of his way to make sure that their support for him is never going to be a problem, minding the right every step of the way so that nobody can say: ‘You’re a vulnerability to me.’”

McCarthy also learned a thing or two about managing his right flank — bringing his conservative critics into the fold rather than seeking to marginalize them as Boehner and Ryan did. How much power he actually ceded them, though, is another question.

One Republican lawmaker close to McCarthy told us that what he’s given the right is the illusion of power — that they had the power to shape outcomes that in fact have been preordained. During his fight for the speakership, for example, McCarthy privately believed he would eventually have to restore the single-member motion to vacate, even as he swore publicly that he would never do such a thing, the member said. When he relented, hard-liners touted it as a major victory.

Similarly, after unveiling a GOP debt ceiling bill last month, McCarthy insisted he’d allow no changes to the bill, only to make 11th-hour modifications to placate conservatives — a ploy, in this member’s telling, to make Freedom Caucus critics feel influential and allow McCarthy to earn chits that he could cash in during a more vulnerable moment. Like now.

BUT IT’S NOT OVER YET — While the hard right’s sense of disappointment hasn’t yet morphed into a sense of betrayal, McCarthy isn’t out of the woods.

The biggest remaining drama surrounds the House Rules Committee. Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas), a Freedom Caucus member who was instrumental in helping McCarthy win the speakership, publicly suggested yesterday that McCarthy essentially promised to give hard-liners veto power over what bills reach the floor — that the panel “would not allow reporting out a rule without unanimous Republican votes.”

That provision is nowhere in writing, and it looks like it will be put to the test tonight. Two of the hard-liners named to the committee, Roy and Rep. RALPH NORMAN (R-S.C.), are opposing the bill, and a third, Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.), has not announced his position. Nine of the panel’s 13 members are Republicans.

On one hand, it’s unthinkable that a meticulously negotiated agreement struck between the Speaker and the White House would be sunk because of an unpublished backroom deal governing the operations of the House Rules Committee.

On the other hand, it’s just this sort of thing that could plant the seeds of distrust. If the debt deal goes to the floor on a mere 7-6 vote or with, vanish the thought, Democratic votes, a sense of duplicity will almost certainly fester with conservatives who are already smarting over McCarthy’s other yet-to-be-fulfilled promises.

So even if this marriage survives the debt deal, the honeymoon McCarthy has enjoyed with the right appears to be coming to a close. Meanwhile, rest assured that conservatives are watching the polls and keeping their ears open for constituent complaints. If the base starts to turn on McCarthy, they will, too.

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

More debt ceiling reads:

PHOTO OF THE DAY

ALL POLITICS

LETTER FROM WISCONSIN — “‘We Got Our Butts Kicked’: How the GOP Lost Wisconsin,” by David Siders for POLITICO Magazine in Ripon, Wis.: “Republicans here are acknowledging that the state has now shifted leftward, and abortion has a lot to do with that. The end of Roe v. Wade last year effectively reinstated Wisconsin’s 19th-century abortion ban, which is already being challenged — and those challenges will likely be decided by the state Supreme Court.”

FROM ZERO TO THREE? — “Black women look to break a streak of disappointment in the Senate,” by Ally Mutnick: “Democrats have a chance to send more Black women to the Senate in 2024 than have ever served in the chamber in its 234-year history. Those hoping to break that particular glass ceiling have a message for the party: Don’t blow it. Retirements by Senate incumbents in Maryland, Delaware and California created a rare trifecta of open seats in blue states. Even more unusual is the fact that a Black woman is a top contender in each field.”

Related read: “Newsom’s vow to appoint a Black woman to the Senate looms large amid Feinstein health concerns,” by CNN’s Kyung Lah

2024 WATCH

DeSANTIS HEADS TO THE HAWKEYE STATE — “DeSantis kicks off presidential campaign in Iowa as he steps up criticism of Trump,” by AP’s Thomas Beaumont: “The Florida governor’s two-day trip to the leadoff caucus state — starting at a suburban Des Moines megachurch and ending at a Cedar Rapids racetrack … will be followed by stops in early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

NEW DETAILS — “Man who crashed U-Haul truck near White House wanted to end U.S. democracy, prosecutors say,” by NBC’s Ken Dilanian and Dennis Romero

CONGRESS

THE IMPORTANCE OF BEING ERNST — “Tapping on glass ceilings and feting 2024 contenders: Behind Ernst’s GOP surge,” by Burgess Everett: “JONI ERNST sees WMDs as the secret to expanding the Republican Party’s appeal. No, she doesn’t mean that kind of weapon: ‘Women. Millennials. And Dudes with beards and tattoos. WMDs,’ the Iowa senator explained in an interview.

“The acronym is ubiquitous in her office, a reminder of the work that lies ahead for the party to make inroads with those constituencies in 2024. And Ernst is stepping into a central role as her state becomes ground zero for a fight to define the GOP’s future — a multi-candidate effort to topple former President Donald Trump from his primary frontrunner spot.”

JUDICIARY SQUARE

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Alliance for Justice and Alliance for Justice Action Campaign today are launching a $400,000 digital media ad campaign calling for Supreme Court Justice CLARENCE THOMAS to resign from the bench because of his reported outside friendship with conservative megadonor HARLAN CROW, which has caused questions and concern over outside influences on the court. The buy consists of video ads and banners that will appear online in major national outlets, including the NYT, WaPo, CNN, POLITICO, Fox News and The Hill. Watch the 30-second ad

SCOTUS WATCH — “Elite High School’s Admissions Plan May Face Supreme Court Test,” by NYT’s Adam Liptak: “The justices will soon rule on race-conscious admissions plans at Harvard and U.N.C. A new appeals court case asks whether schools can use race-neutral tools to achieve racial diversity.”

FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — “Judge postpones showdown over 14th Amendment debt powers,” by Josh Gerstein

POLICY CORNER

THE PERSISTENT PANDEMIC — “For covid long-haulers, the pandemic is far from over,” by WaPo’s Frances Stead Sellers: “Physicians and patients alike say the threat is clear: that long covid could lose the funding that had raised hopes of solving the mysteries behind a slew of apparently post-viral conditions. And fears have crept in that long-haulers will face a fate akin to that of people with chronic fatigue syndrome — marginalized and misunderstood, with a lack of medical evidence to explain or treat their symptoms and little impetus for researchers to dedicate their careers to such confounding cases.”

SUPPLY CHAIN STRUGGLE — “The AI Boom Runs on Chips, but It Can’t Get Enough,” by WSJ’s Deepa Seetharaman and Tom Dotan

WAR IN UKRAINE

LATEST ON THE GROUND — “Drones Hit Residential Areas in Moscow for First Time,” by WSJ’s Thomas Grove: “Drones struck several buildings including residential blocks in Moscow, Russian authorities said Tuesday, blaming Ukraine for the first attacks on civilian areas deep inside the country since the invasion last year.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

UNLIKELY ALLIANCE — Biden and Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) made for a surprising duo coming out strongly against the “harsh anti-LGBTQ measure signed into law in Uganda on Monday that imposes the death penalty for what it describes as ‘aggravated homosexuality’ and establishes lifetime prison sentences for anyone who engages in gay sex,” USA Today’s John Fritze writes. What Cruz said: “This Uganda law is horrific & wrong,” he wrote in a tweet. What Biden said: The president called the law “a tragic violation of universal human rights.”

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “China Rebuffs Pentagon Chief, Blunting Push for Rapprochement,” by WSJ’s Nancy Youssef: “China has rebuffed a U.S. request for a meeting between their defense chiefs on the sidelines of an annual security forum in Singapore this coming weekend, the Pentagon said Monday, showing the limits of a tentative rapprochement between the two rival powers.”

PULLOUT FALLOUT — “Afghan Women Who Aided U.S. Military Wait for Asylum in America,” by NYT’s Ava Sasani: “Members of the Afghan Army’s all-female platoon are some of the roughly 70,000 Afghans living in the United States whose temporary status has left them with an uncertain future.”

ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA — “North Korea says it will launch its first military spy satellite in June,” by AP’s Kim Tong-hyung in Seoul, South Korea

COLD TURKEY — “Biden says he and Erdogan talked about F-16s, Sweden’s NATO bid,” by Reuters’ Steve Holland and Humeyra Pamuk … “Erdogan’s Next Focus: Turkey’s Place on the World Stage,” by WSJ’s Jared Malsin in Istanbul … “Will Erdogan’s Victory Soften Turkey’s Opposition to Sweden in NATO?” by NYT’s Steven Erlanger

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

DEEP IN THE HEART — Texas AG KEN PAXTON will face his impeachment trial “no later than Aug. 28, shortly after the House named 12 members to prosecute the case,” the Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek and Renzo Downey write from the last day of the session in Austin.

The stepback: “The 2023 Texas legislative session started with ‘historic’ budget surplus and ended with an impeached attorney general,” by the Tribune’s Kate McGee and Matthew Watkins

HOLD THE MAYO — Minnesota lawmakers are watering down their proposal to rein in health care costs, caving to the powerful Mayo Clinic, which threatened to scrap $4 billion in planned investments if lawmakers didn’t fold. The move by the world-renowned health system is the latest example of why state attempts to move the needle on health care affordability are foundering against industry heavyweights, Megan Messerly writes.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND HORROR — “At least 16 dead, dozens injured in shootings across the U.S. over Memorial Day weekend,” by NBC’s Kalhan Rosenblatt

MEDIAWATCH

MR. PAKMAN — “This lefty commentator goes calmly where others dare not. Has he bridged the internet’s toxic divide?” by NBC’s Jason Abbruzzese: “DAVID PAKMAN has become one of the internet’s top progressive commentators, though you won’t find him in many of the same places as other lefty personalities.”

Richard Blumenthal is ready to step in on behalf of Lindsey Graham in case Russia takes a run at him.

Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward wrote Alexey Navalny a personal note inside a copy of “All the President’s Men.”

TRANSITIONS — Danielle Branz is now senior policy adviser for Rep. Scott Franklin (R-Fla.). She previously was a senior legislative assistant for Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.). … Anna Newby is now director of public affairs for the National Nuclear Security Administration at the Department of Energy. She previously was senior director for comms at Albright Stonebridge Group. … Mansoor Khadir is now associate VP of external affairs at NCTA – The Internet & Television Association. He previously was director of special projects at the DNC. … Tracy Roosevelt is now attorney adviser in the office of the general counsel of the Department of the Navy. She previously was in the international litigation and arbitration practice at Foley Hoag.

WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Buckley Carlson, deputy chief of staff for Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), and Kelsey Kilgore, government affairs associate at Jeff Kimbell and Associates and a Trump White House and NSC alum, got married on Saturday in Hiltons, Va. The couple met at UVA. Pic

— Olivia Perez-Cubas, a managing director at Bullpen Strategy Group and a Marco Rubio alum, and Hooff Cooksey, a principal at HC Strategies and an NRSC and Jeb Bush alum, got married Saturday at St. Thomas Aquinas in Charlottesville, Va., with a reception at Thomas Jefferson’s Montalto. Pic … Another pic … Pic of the Rubio crew … SPOTTED: Carl and Kim Hulse, Meridith McGraw, Alex and Caitlin Conant, Todd Harris, Michael Ahrens, Charlie and Lisa Spies, Joe Pounder, Matt Gorman, Sinead Casey, Mikayla Bouchard Hensler, Courtney Alexander, Jeremy Adler, Christina and Rob Noel, Brooke Sours, Michael Byerly, Justine Sanders, Jesse Hunt, Elliott Schwartz and David Kochel.

— Jessica Pomper, international trade specialist at the Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration, and Joshua DeMoss, foreign service officer at the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, got married on Sunday at the Fairmont Georgetown, with Rabbi Lauren Holtzblatt serving as the officiant.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Elizabeth Bennett-Parker, a member of the Virginia House of Delegates for Alexandria, and Stephen Parker, executive director of the National Independent Venue Association, on May 8 welcomed Emma Adeline Bennett Parker, who came in at 7 lbs, 7 oz. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NBC’s Frank Thorp … Reema Dodin … Holly Page … Miryam Lipper … Thomas Cluderay … NYT’s Michelle Cottle and Kirsten Danis … Stratton Kirton … Loren Duggan … Daily Wire’s Ashe Schow … Lauren Nevin … Nicholas Ballasy … CNN’s Eric Levenson … Victoria Kucharski … POLITICO’s Maggie Miller, Pratyusha Sankuratri, James Bambara and Stephen Shapanka … Rob Noel … Lisa Stark … PhRMA’s Nicole Longo … Jeff Freeland … Ashley Bender Spirn … Get Out the Vote’s Steve Kramer … Jenna Lee … Rusty Pickens … former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) … Chris Gowen … Paul Frieser (82) … Holland & Knight’s Scott Mason

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