Carlisle United and Stockport County to keep things tight

Date, KO time and TV coverage

League Two play-off final, Sunday May 29, Kick-off 1:30pm, live on Sky Sports Football

Predicted score

Carlisle United 0-0 Stockport County

Suggested bets

Match to be a draw Under 1.5 goals Both teams to score: No

Key stats

Carlisle United have won just two of their last 13 League Two matches, including the play-offs, inside 90 minutes. Stockport County were unbeaten against Carlisle United in the regular season, winning 2-0 at Edgeley Park and drawing 2-2 on their travels. Since New Year’s Day, Stockport County have lost three times in 25 League Two matches, including the play-offs.

Verdict

Carlisle United and Stockport County will meet at Wembley Stadium on Sunday afternoon, with the winner taking their place in League One. Carlisle United are taking part in their first-ever EFL play-off final. The Blues have suffered several semi-final heartbreaks before, last losing 6-5 to Exeter in 2017. Stockport County could continue a historic trend of National League teams securing back-to-back promotions, although they’d be the first side to do so since Tranmere Rovers in 2019. These two sides finished the season in differing form but United will have taken confidence from their come-from-behind win over Bradford City. After losing the first leg 1-0, Carlisle took the game to extra-time at Brunton Park, going on to win 3-1 with goals from Callum Guy and Ben Barclay. Stockport also had to come from behind to erase a first-leg deficit, but they were good value for the win against one of the league’s best away teams. After the pressure of a National League title race last season and the momentum that’s brought forward, County do seem well placed to better embrace the big occasion on Sunday. That said, they have lost four of their five trips to Wembley, and it is a stadium that can get the better of teams. Two of the last three finals have been decided by at least three goals. It’s also worth noting that only one side has scored in each of the last four finals, with two of those finishing 0-0 and going to extra time. During the regular season, Carlisle (22) kept more clean sheets than Stockport (20). Both of these sides conceded less than a goal per game this season and on paper, it’s tough to split them. In keeping with previous finals, we expect at least one side to fail to score in 90 minutes. Under 1.5 goals offers value while both teams to score: no is a worthwhile price. The best bet may be to back the League Two play-off final to go to extra time.

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