MLB Thursday best bets: Dodgers’ offense to shine

We suffered a bit of a setback on Wednesday night, going 1-2 with our best bets. The Red Sox took care of business on the runline, but both of our player props failed to come through.

We’re still riding a nice 15-7 record since the beginning of last week, which we’ll look to build on with three more plays tonight. Let’s get to them.

White Sox (+120) @ Dodgers (-140)

Dylan Cease is a good pitcher – but he’s struggling this year. That’s been especially evident of late.

Cease owns a 4.50 FIP over the past 30 days. He’s allowed a lot of good contact and had issues with control, walking nearly 11% of opposing batters during that stretch.

Taking it one step further, he ranks fourth last among Thursday’s projected starters in xwOBA over the last month. He’s keeping close company with Kyle Freeland in that regard, which is not a spot anyone wants to be in.

The reason his run-prevention numbers are still pretty good is, by and large, a string of soft competition: He’s faced poor offensive clubs like the Marlins, Tigers, and Guardians over the past handful of starts.

The Dodgers – who destroy right-handed pitching – are a huge step up. The game is also in Los Angeles, and Cease has fared noticeably worse on the road.

He’s allowed 16 runs over his last four starts away from home, allowing three or more in three of them – including to the Tigers and Royals.

But, even against a weak White Sox offense, I don’t fully trust Michael Grove to keep the scoreboard clean.

Thus, we’re going to isolate the lethal Dodgers offense and back them to plate a few runs in the first half.

Bet: Dodgers F5 over 2.5 runs (-110)

Paul Blackburn under 17.5 outs (-120)

Blackburn has pitched pretty well since returning to the Athletics. He’s allowed six runs in three starts and done a good job of limiting both hard contact and walks allowed.

That being said, there is still some cause for concern. Blackburn conceded six baserunners in four innings against the Braves and followed that up by allowing nine over five against the Marlins. A date with the Brewers – whose offense is in the bottom five – is the only game in which he didn’t run into trouble. It was also the only start in which Blackburn lasted more than 15 outs.

Although he does deserve credit for that, it hardly means he’s going to step in front of this Rays team and chew up innings. His opponent ranks first in almost every major offensive category. The Rays hit for power, they hit for average, and they relentlessly stress opposing pitchers while on the basepaths.

Not many pitchers last six innings against them. Expecting Blackburn – who has completed six innings three times over the last 12 starts dating back to last season – to do so against a top-tier offense seems like a stretch.

Dylan Cease under 16.5 outs (-125)

Cease has gone under this number in eight of 14 starts this season, which equates to 57% of the time. If we isolate the past 10, we’re looking at six unders with the exceptions coming against the Guardians (twice), Marlins, and an injury-depleted Astros team.

He rarely pitches deep into games – especially in tougher matchups – and I don’t see that changing against the Dodgers.

Against right-handed pitchers, the Dodgers lead the league in xwOBA on their own soil and rank near the top in batting average, on-base percentage, and homers. They’re a lethal offense. They are also a patient offense, posting one of the lower swing rates.

The Dodgers are extremely effective at working their way into more favorable counts. This leads to a lot of wasted pitches, which lowers the ceiling for how long opposing pitchers can last.

Look for Cease to go under the number in Los Angeles.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.