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Where does Mark Hughes turn if he needs a goal?
By Alex Scott
Last Sunday’s game was another example of the importance of the first goal for this City team. They’ve only lost once out of the 26 games this year when they’ve scored first, with 20 wins and 5 draws. Conversely, they’ve only won once in the 13 games they’ve conceded first. Plan A? Pretty good. Plan B-Z? Not so much.
They aren’t alone in this. Carlisle are the best side in League Two when scoring first, with 19 wins from 22 games, yet winning only 1 of the 17 games they’ve conceded first.
The first goal on Saturday will be crucial. In a tie so tight, with only a slender one goal lead to protect, there’s a good chance that at some point Mark Hughes will need to find someone off the bench to impact the game in an attacking sense. Especially if you remember our attempts at defending corners last week, and especially if – like me – Hughes has entertained the thought exercise of coming up with five penalty takers from the people likely to be on the pitch after 120 minutes. Yikes. A draw is probably not a viable result.
If he needs a goal, where does Mark Hughes turn?
Hughes does finally seem to have settled on his best eleven, which is a positive. Over the past ten games, he’s only really made one unenforced change: whether to include a left winger (and he has tried several), or Adam Clayton at the back of the diamond as his final midfield option. And even this change – as Tim outlined last week – was mostly brought about by Harry Chapman’s injury at Swindon, creating the dilemma which had previously been resolved. The remainder of the team has been essentially static throughout, save a flip between Matty Platt and Romoney Crichlow following the former’s suspension.
In addition to a settled starting eleven, Hughes has also identified who he wants to bring on to impact the game, at least in an attacking sense, as substitutes. Of the most recent nine games he has started on the bench, Matt Derbyshire has always come on as a sub at some point, normally for Jamie Walker. Emmanuel Osadebe has come on as sub in all but one of the games since his return from injury.
Neither Osadebe nor Derbyshire has covered themselves in glory as impact subs. Osadebe is yet to score or assist in a City shirt. Derbyshire has been involved in just one goal off the bench (he set up Andy Cook’s winner against Grimsby).
That these two players are essentially the only players Hughes trusts at this stage to come on and impact a game in an attacking sense is obvious. That, in the main, they have been unable to come on and impact a game in an attacking sense is concerning.
On the rare occasions City have chased a game this year, they’ve struggled. Only once all year when they have been chasing an equaliser towards the end of a game has Hughes been able to find a goal off the bench (Vadaine Oliver’s late equaliser at home to Wimbledon). Only twice have they been able to salvage a point from a losing position within the last twenty minutes (Wimbledon and Hartlepool at home).
It is not without trying, but the club’s inability to find impact attacking players to complement Andy Cook is going to be a key part of any post-mortem of this season. Looking at Mark Hughes’s bench options going into Saturday’s game illustrates the point.
The reason why Hughes clearly feels like his hands are tied with his substitutes is that outside of his starting eleven, no one has shown any ability to impact a game in an attacking sense.
The first goal will always be crucial after a 1-0 first leg. The first goal is especially crucial in a game between these two sides who’ve both an inability to come back into games.
City have reasons to be optimistic heading into Saturday. They’ve only trailed by more than one goal three times all season: at Orient, at home to Northampton and at Crewe. They did lose all those games (albeit salvaging the latter before losing). But they carry a one goal lead into the tie and all season have played games tight.
But against a side whom they match up poorly, who they were fortunate to beat last week, who boast a pretty good home record (5th) and a better attacking record (3rd), there’s a good chance they will need a goal at some point. And for a side who have questions to answer on their ability to handle pressure, Saturday’s game will be tense.
With so few cards in his hand left to play to change the game, the first goal might be everything for Mark Hughes on Saturday.
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