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The Punting Club: ‘He’s one of the worst favourites that I’ve seen in years’ – your Royal Ascot questions answered
Royal Ascot, the biggest event of the summer calendar packed with five days of top-class racing, is nearly here.
Our resident Punting Club judges, Harry Wilson, Joe Eccles and Liam Headd, are on hand to discuss hot topics and festival wagers…
Can all the favourites on Tuesday give the bookies a right bashing? And everyone seems to be on Perotto in the Royal Hunt Cup, is he the good thing in the race? Andy Parker
Harry Wilson: I don’t tend to back favourites, and I don’t think a lot of the market leaders on Tuesday are bulletproof. However, 2,000 Guineas winner Chaldean (St James’s Palace), Bring On The Night, who is only 4lb higher than for last year’s second to Gold Cup favourite Coltrane in the Ascot Stakes, and Inspiral if she leapfrogs Modern Games in the Queen Anne, look the most likely. With lots of unexposed winners in opposition I’d take on River Tiber (Coventry), and Vauban (Copper Horse) can be beaten. I can see the attraction with Perotto as he won the Britannia over course and distance on quick ground in 2021 off 3lb higher and he shaped with promise in the Victoria Cup last time, but a ‘good thing’ in a race of this nature is hard to come by. I’ve got my eye on Ouzo, but I’d wait for the draw to make a firm selection.
Joe Eccles: Let’s hope it is a day to remember for the punters, Andy. It’s never that easy though, is it? You could be looking at joint-favourites in the Queen Anne and the St James’s Palace Stakes which does complicate matters from an accumulator perspective. I suspect that Bring On The Night (Ascot Stakes) and Vauban (Copper Horse Handicap) will be a double that most firms hope fails to land. As for Perotto, he ran respectably in the Victoria Cup last time and is well handicapped on his best form, but I am happy to leave him alone at a single-figure price given that he’s now two years without a win.
Perotto: well backed in the Royal Hunt Cup bettingCredit: Edward Whitaker
Liam Headd: We’ll see a few short-priced winners on the opening day but with a wide-open handicap closing the card I think one horse will help the bookies salvage something. Modern Games was impressive in the Lockinge and I think he has class over his rivals in the Queen Anne to give the punters a fine start. River Tiber (Coventry) looks a classy one for O’Brien, while Bring On The Night (Ascot Stakes) is another I can’t look past. Perotto ran with promise in the Victoria Cup and with an in-form trainer he should go close, but Ghaly should not be fazed by a long layoff and he can run a big race.
Who will be the top jockey and top trainer at Royal Ascot this year? Are there people you think are being underestimated in the market? Alec Wilson
Harry: I can’t see past Ryan Moore for top jockey. Not only will he be on every first-choice Aidan O’Brien horse, but he has ties with Sir Michael Stoute, Willie Mullins, Richard Hannon and runners from Cheveley Park, too, just to name a few. As for top trainer, it interests me just how many runners O’Brien has in handicaps, as well as Group races, and he will be hard to beat. However, 25-1 about Karl Burke and 33-1 for George Boughey could prove far too big. Both have big, quality teams heading to the meeting and it would be dangerous to ignore them.
Joe: Ryan Moore was top jockey at last year’s meeting for the ninth time and Aidan O’Brien took the top trainer title for an eleventh time. Sky Bet goes 15-8 that Moore is top jockey and O’Brien is top trainer next week and that looks the best angle into this year’s market.
Liam: Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore are the duo for big occasions and I think they’ll once again finish on top at the end of the week, having done so last year. The Ballydoyle maestro has a number of leading favourites within his squad and the yard is in solid form heading into the royal meeting. All eyes will be on Frankie Dettori as he takes part in his final Royal Ascot, so he’ll be desperate for winners and he could run Moore close. In terms of other trainers, William Haggas has hit form at the right time and I think he is being overlooked.
River Tiber looked superb on debut over five and a half furlongs and still won comfortably over five furlongs next time. I think he looks banker material in the Coventry, what do you guys think? Lee Wainwright
Harry: I’m going to have to disagree with you, Lee. He may have looked visually impressive when winning by ten lengths on his debut, but that form is terrible. Every horse in behind has disappointed since and he seemed very suited to the soft surface. He didn’t travel anywhere near as well when dropped to five furlongs on quick ground last time and the way he was taken off the bridle was a bit alarming, especially as he was facing another horse dropping in trip. If the rain came I might change my position, but I’d take him on if the ground is fast. Givemethebeatboys improved massively on Racing Post Ratings when upped in trip on a quicker surface in the Marble Hill last time and the booking of Dettori is eyecatching, while Haatem, who was an unlucky third in the Woodcote, will prove his price all wrong.
River Tiber: set to go off favourite for the Coventry StakesCredit: CAROLINE NORRIS
Joe: At the prices he is not for me. He looked a potential superstar at Navan but the horses in behind are a combined 0-7 since and not one has produced a Racing Post Rating higher than 71. I thought he took plenty of coaxing at Naas last time, and while he hit the line strongly it was not a performance that made me want to rush in at 6-4.
Liam: I have to agree with you on this one, Lee. The way he quickened on his Navan maiden was frightening and he showed big signs of improvement on quicker ground when he was given more of a challenge. His pedigree suggests he’ll have no issues with the step up to six furlongs, and maybe even further in time, so it’ll take something seriously impressive to beat him. Asadna won his debut at Ripon in style and will likely be close towards the line, while Frankie’s mount Givemethebeatboys is two from two and looks a nice one, but my money would be on River Tiber.
Elite Status looked a sprinting superstar in the making at Sandown in the National Stakes. Do you think he is a certainty in the Norfolk? Or could American Rascal be another American speedster for Wesley Ward? Michael Carter
Harry: You couldn’t help but be impressed by Elite Status at Sandown. He travelled strongly and when asked to pick up, he did so with immediate effect and stretched clear in the closing stages. He looks exciting and could well be up to winning if reproducing that National Stakes performance – he could well improve on it, too. American Rascal was an emphatic winner of a 4½f maiden at Keeneland, showing lots of speed to win by over ten lengths eased down. He’s the first progeny of Lady Aurelia, who was a comfortable winner of the Queen Mary and King’s Stand on her first two visits to Royal Ascot, and if he’s anything like his dam, they won’t see which way he goes. Wesley Ward has been very bullish about his chances and 3-1 could look a great price come Thursday.
Joe: I couldn’t believe it when I read that the last winning Norfolk favourite was South Central in 2008! Trends are there to be broken though, and Elite Status should claim this year’s race if he runs to anywhere near his Sandown form. American Rascal could be anything, but bookmakers do not take chances with Wesley Ward’s horses at this meeting and the 3-1 about the colt does look particularly skinny.
Liam: Karl Burke’s juvenile looks a Group horse in the making after his eyecatching and powerful win at Sandown last time. He is bred to be speedy and the jump up to Listed company following his debut win didn’t appear to faze him. The ground was quicker in the National Stakes compared to his Doncaster run, so with conditions expected to be similar he should have no issues winning again. American Rascal also possesses a high level of speed and his Keeneland win was powerful, but Elite Status’s trainer won twice at this meeting last year and I think he is banker material.
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With Kyprios out for a while, do you think that Coltrane will be beaten this year? Richard Lilesmartt
Harry: I think Coltrane is right up there as being one of the worst favourites of the Ascot Gold Cup I’ve seen in years. He was outclassed in the Goodwood Cup when tried at this level last year, got smashed in the Lonsdale Cup by Quickthorn, who wouldn’t cut it at this level, had really tight scraps with a declining Trueshan, and won a weak Sagaro when that rival massively underperformed. None of that entitles him to be winning this, let alone remain unbeaten this year. Eldar Eldarov showed he needed an extreme test when staying on late and fast in the Yorkshire Cup and produced an RPR of 119 that day, which equals Coltrane’s career best. Eldar Eldarov has so much more upside being a four-year-old and only an in-form Subjectivist can stop him in my book.
Joe: I have to disagree with Harry on this one. I am surprised that Coltrane is not shorter for this year’s Gold Cup. He was beaten less than five lengths in last year’s Goodwood Cup, which is by far the strongest form in the race, and his Ascot form figures read 121. His profile is rock-solid in a fairly weak renewal and I’ll certainly be siding with him.
Liam: I agree with Joe. I’ve already backed Coltrane for the Gold Cup, so I’m sticking with my gut and saying he won’t be beat this year. I spoke to Oisin Murphy over the weekend and he said the team couldn’t be happier with his work at home. He made a pretty solid reappearance in the Sagaro at Ascot last month, which was a career-best effort based on Racing Post Ratings, and I still believe there’s improvement to come. Callum Hutchinson gave him a peach of a ride to win the Ascot Stakes 12 months ago, which was over this staying distance, and his form is too strong to look past.
Coltrane: dividing opinion among the Punting ClubCredit: Edward Whitaker
Could you give me an each-way Trixie for the handicaps please? Nathan Briggs
Harry: That’s my go-to bet, Nathan. Law Of The Sea (12-1, Ascot Stakes) would have gone even closer in the Chester Cup with a clear run and suggested a longer trip and bigger field may suit when losing by just under a length last time. Ouzo (33-1, Royal Hunt Cup) finished last in the Buckingham Palace last year when tried in first-time cheekpieces, but he had good form at a mile after in Britain, and in Meydan over the winter, and he goes well after a break. Orbaan (25-1, Buckingham Palace Stakes) takes a while to get his season going, so his fast-finishing fourth at Epsom was eyecatching. A fast-paced seven furlongs at this stiff track will suit him perfectly
Joe: Unforgotten (16-1, Buckingham Palace Stakes) should have more to offer from a mark of 97 and this is his only entry at the meeting. Copy Artist (16-1, Sandringham Stakes) is progressing well and had valuable experience of this course and distance last time out, and Apollo One (25-1, Wokingham Stakes) went off far too quickly when eighth in last year’s Wokingham and more patient tactics can see him go close off a similar mark.
Liam: Dunum (Royal Hunt Cup) has been reinvigorated since switching to Natalia Lupini’s yard and I think he’ll outrun his odds. He’s proven himself over a mile on both soft and quick ground, and won over further, so looks well suited to this particular test. Docklands (Britannia Stakes) is a progressive type for Harry Eustace and his course-and-distance win under Hayley Turner produced a career-best RPR. Dream Composer (Wokingham Stakes) ran with credit on his first turf start this year, and he has improved for every start. He’s a course winner and if he gets a clear run, he should have the speed to go close.
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